Case studies
Reconstructing real flood events
We replay major flood events through the RA-FEWS pipeline, run by run, to show what a probabilistic, catchment-scale warning would have surfaced, and to be honest about the limits.
Case study
The Tana kept rising. The forecast saw it days out.
Published 2024
In late November 2023, El Niño short rains sent the Tana River over its banks at Garissa, displacing tens of thousands across north-eastern Kenya. The build-up was slow and foreseeable: ensemble forecasts carried the signal for days. We reconstructed what a probabilistic, catchment-scale warning would have shown, run by run, as the flood wave routed down the basin.
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Storm Daniel hit Derna. The forecast saw it coming.
Published 2024
On 11 September 2023 a wadi flash flood and two dam failures destroyed much of Derna, Libya. The meteorology was not a surprise: global forecasts carried the signal for days. We reconstructed what a probabilistic, catchment-scale warning would have shown, run by run, in the week before the flood.
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