Case studies
Reconstructing real flood events
We replay major flood events through the RA-FEWS pipeline, run by run, to show what a probabilistic, catchment-scale warning would have surfaced, and to be honest about the limits.
Case study
The Taquari broke every record. The forecast saw it a week out.
Published 2026
In late April and early May 2024 the worst floods in Rio Grande do Sul's history swept southern Brazil, killing more than 180 people and displacing three-quarters of a million. Two weeks of relentless rain drove the Taquari River past levels never seen in 150 years of measurement. It was a large, sustained, rainfall-driven river flood, exactly the kind a global ensemble resolves days ahead. We reconstructed what a probabilistic, catchment-scale warning would have shown, run by run.
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The Swat tore through the valley. The forecast saw it days out.
Published 2026
In late August 2022, Pakistan's monsoon super-floods sent the Swat River raging through its valley, sweeping away hotels, bridges and homes from Kalam to Mingora and on toward Nowshera. The rain was part of a vast, well-forecast monsoon surge, and ensemble forecasts carried a near-certain flood signal for days. We reconstructed what a probabilistic, catchment-scale warning would have shown, run by run, as the flood built over the Swat basin.
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The Tana kept rising. The forecast saw it days out.
Published 2024
In late November 2023, El Niño short rains sent the Tana River over its banks at Garissa, displacing tens of thousands across north-eastern Kenya. The build-up was slow and foreseeable: ensemble forecasts carried the signal for days. We reconstructed what a probabilistic, catchment-scale warning would have shown, run by run, as the flood wave routed down the basin.
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Storm Daniel hit Derna. The forecast saw it coming.
Published 2024
On 11 September 2023 a wadi flash flood and two dam failures destroyed much of Derna, Libya. The meteorology was not a surprise: global forecasts carried the signal for days. We reconstructed what a probabilistic, catchment-scale warning would have shown, run by run, in the week before the flood.
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